Ew update; December 15th, 2009

Ew update: December 11th, 2009

Disclaimer: I havent slept in over a day, so I might revisit these charts later this weekend.

Guys over at EWI said that the expanding triangle count might have completed. I don't accept counts that break the rules on such a large time span (blue (c) didnt take out blue (e)), and we basically had 5 waves since black (A) top for black (b) that all look like threes. Corrections that are 5 waves are triangles, but these dont obey any of the rules for triangles. That leaves a sideways correction, which means that if we are done, that blue (C) should be 5 waves (structure was fucked up by holidays?), so that we had a flat for (w), then we really have had only three waves for black (b) and its finished.

I think we had (5) up since the bottom, but I'd proceed with caution (Hochbergesque comment), as I think theres a chance this is the 6th wave of a 7 wave sideways move for black (b)[So blue (c) was three in this situation for anyone who has followed the assumptions this far].

I posted a chart studying volume prior to primary wave 1 based on the intermediate trend of volume leading up to and following the top. EWI says "volume is the foot print of the herd." I disagree, I think a better analogy is volume is to price movement as acceleration is to velocity. Acceleration can change its direction, and velocity will slow down while it maintain its direction for a period of time before stopping and reversing towards the direction of the acceleration. So, a directional change in volume precedes a change in price. This is based on anecdotal evidence and my four months worth of stock market experience, so that idea might fail miserably or I'll play with it in longer term trends. Tulane EWP copyright on that

UUP chart up again, the move from the low is taking on a "three" look, and had highest volume today. Now, I guess thats also what would happen if a third impulse wave were forming, or if the UUP wave structures turned out to be completely bogus

December 9th - UUP

I know some of my admirers think charting the UUP is a lost cause, and by some of my admirers, I mean the one or two random anonymous guys who occasionally throw me a comment, and, of course, Stevejamison73. Anyway, I went ahead and gave it another go, view of the equities has not changed.

We are Taking Our Finals - No Update - Sorry

We are taking our finals for the next few days and will only post as time permits.

Ew update: December 7th, 2009

Triangle count still in play. Fits all the guidelines + rules. B,C,and D retraced between 105 and 125 percent of the preceding subwave (S&P five of five truncated, thats not hindsight bias or manipulative labeling, I had that truncation labeled in real time, and have had it labeled like so since). C wave was probably complex and butchered by holidays, it certainly had the time element right. Probably take 1-2 more trading sessions to play out.

EW update: December 4th, 2009

EW update: December 2nd. 2009